A | While extensive, international negotiations have now led to the release of four hostages captured by Hamas, scores of foreign nationals in Gaza, including as many as 600 Americans, are still being blocked by the U.S.-designated terrorist group from crossing into Egypt, according to Biden administration officials."To date, at least, Hamas has blocked them from leaving, showing once again its total disregard for civilians of any kind who are stuck in Gaza," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a televised interview Sunday.On Monday, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller clarified that the U.S. now assessed that after weeks of negotiations with Egypt and Israel aimed at securing safe passage for the Americans, only Hamas stood in the way."We do believe that Egypt is ready to process American citizens if they can make it to Egyptian authorities. Hamas just has to stop blocking their exit," Miller said.Miller also said that while U.S. officials were not in direct communication with Hamas, they have been urging Hamas to step aside in messages sent through "a number of partners."The Biden administration has been working since soon after the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel to reopen the Rafah gate -- the sole border crossing between Gaza and Egypt -- in order to move aid into the area and allow foreign nationals to leave.While a limited number of trucks carrying food, water and medicine were able to enter Gaza for the first time on Saturday, so far none of the foreign nationals has been allowed to leave.Miller explained that "a number of civilians, some American citizens" flocked to the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing when it was first opened, but none were able to leave because Hamas "was there blocking anyone from coming through the gate from the Gaza side out to the Egyptian side."According to U.S. officials, the Egyptian government has also been hesitant to allow civilians to exit Gaza through the Rafah gate because of the country's intense concern over security threats posed by terrorist activities on the Sinai Peninsula.Egyptian officials are also likely eager to avoid the optics of thousands of people pouring across the border from Gaza -- wary the country might appear complicit in what its president and other Middle Eastern leaders have said would be an "ethnic cleansing" of Gaza.While securing Egypt's cooperation in eventually facilitating the departure of American citizens would be a diplomatic achievement for the administration, it does not yet appear that Cairo has signaled it will extend the same opportunity to the parents, children, siblings, and partners of U.S. nationals in Gaza.Miller said it was still the administration's goal that the immediate family members of American citizens crossing through the Rafah gate would be allowed to depart as well, but that it was "an ongoing conversation" with Egypt.With a potential Israeli ground incursion looming, the already dire circumstances facing Americans and their loved ones inside Gaza may soon get even worse.Abood Okal, a 36-year-old American, has been stranded in Gaza with his wife and 1-year-old son since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, told his lawyer, Sammy Nabulsi, that the family has been huddled in a home with 40 other people, sleeping on the floor, sharing meager amounts of food, and that for an entire day, they had been forced to drink salt water to survive.Nabulsi said in an interview with ABC News Live on Monday that Okal's family had been instructed by the State Department to go to the Rafah crossing four different times, but on each occasion no one had been allowed to pass through the gate."I think the holdup is the United States isn't focused on this effort at all," said Nabulsi. "It's unacceptable to me. It should be unacceptable to every single American citizen is this entire country."Although the State Department asserts that Hamas is preventing them from fleeing to safety, Miller said Americans stranded in Gaza are "in a different situation" from the around 220 individuals the Israeli Defense Forces believes are still being held hostage by the group."I am not at all trying to minimize the situation," Miller said, acknowledging Americans like Okal and his family are facing "deplorable" circumstances and vowing that U.S. officials are "working intensively' to get them out.The administration has not provided any number or estimate of how many of the 500 to 600 Americans thought to be trapped in Gaza have reached out to the State Department for help."We have a list of Americans who are registered with us, and when we have any information about the possibility of transiting outside of Gaza, we're providing it to all of them," Miller said.。 作为一名从业十余年的地产观察者，我注意到今年秋天的媒体语境中，“金九银十”这个词几乎失去了往日的声量。市场的喧嚣被一种近乎凝滞的静默取代，这种静默，比任何数据都更能反映当前楼市的真实温度。 回顾去年国庆，受“9·24”新政提振，全国多地楼市曾短暂回暖。广州、深圳等地甚至还出现了抢房的盛况，媒体铺天盖地的“金九银十”报道，确实也成色十足，当时市场普遍认为，房地产已触底，2025年上半年将迎来反弹。
B | 然而，刚刚过去的国庆中秋双节，却几乎迎来近十年最差的楼市。笔者到南昌一些新推楼盘走访，开发商也推出了特价房源、赠送车位、家装补贴以及“保价”等一系列营销活动，但与去年国庆的盛况相比，今年就冷清多了，没有了热闹的人流，曾经彻夜不息的灯光暗了下来，促销横幅在秋风中褪色，这一切与去年的盛况形成鲜明对比。 一位销售坦言，9月份以来，在各种促销攻势之下，新房销售确实稍有好转，主要是以价换量推动一些刚需用户下定决心，但是整个市场并未发生根本性改变，“数据一如既往难看，我们售楼中心好多人都兼职卖二手房了。”这话语背后，是整个行业正在经历的深刻转型。 与去年此时密集的政策刺激不同，今年从中央政治局会议到地方政策出台，基调都转向“稳预期、防风险”。政策重心从刺激交易转向托底市场，这种转变正在重塑全社会对房地产的认知。 首先，购房者心态已发生根本性转变。过去三十年房地产之所以狂飙突进，一方面是其居住的属性需求，另一方面则是投资需求，或者是炒房的需求，而投资向来是买涨不买跌，买的是一个预期。
C | 事实也证明，在那个“买涨不买跌”的年代，上涨预期催生了楼市黄金二十年。 而今，在住房总量基本饱和、空置率居高不下的背景下，房子的投资属性正在剥离，回归居住本质。
D | 这种转变使得购房逻辑彻底反转——现在是“买跌不买涨”，甚至“只看不买”。这也就能解释为何现在各种大促，反而让民众有了未来更便宜的想法。
E | 国家力推四代住宅提升品质的同时，存量房激增成为去化的最大挑战。
F | 国盛证券研究表明，我国存量住房已基本满足需求，未来十年住房需求可能再降三成。住建部2025年3月公布的数据显示，全国城镇住房空置率达16.2%，涉及3.9亿套城镇住房。 商业地产同样不容乐观。仲量联行数据显示，今年二季度全国主要城市甲级办公楼新增供应170.5万平方米，其中一线城市占115.8万平方米。集中供应推高上海空置率至24.6%，广州至23.8%，深圳更是达到26.5%。 其次，高空置率叠加经济增速放缓，强化了市场对房价下行的预期。
G | 看国家统计局发布的全国70个大中型城市房价，8月份一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.0%，其中，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降1.2%、1.0%、0.9%和0.8%；二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点；三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.5%。9月份70个城市环比同比全部下跌，无一例外。 一线城市跌幅为1.0%左右（北京、上海、广州、深圳降0.9%、1.0%、0.8%、1.0%），二、三线城市跌幅为0.7%和0.6%左右。同比已经有不少城市跌幅达10%，意味着去年200万购入的房产，如今蒸发20万价值——这几乎是普通工薪阶层两年的收入。这种持续阴跌进一步固化了购房者的观望心态。 当前购房门槛确实显著降低：首付比例最低降至15%，首套房贷利率探至3.05%，公积金贷款利率更低至2.6%，房价较2021年高点平均回落超30%。 然而，这些“利好”并未激发购买热情，反而让更多人期待“更低的底”。谈论房价时，人们语气中的迟疑取代了从前的笃定，谨慎算计压过了冲动消费。 即使有真实需求的购房者也会变得格外谨慎，担心自己今天买入明天就贬值，成为接盘侠。 笔者去年8月曾写《熊市买房记》记录当时的买房遭遇和心态，后来买房泡汤核心也是害怕做接盘侠。有开发商悄悄将“限时折扣”改成了“保价承诺”，试图对抗那看不见却无处不在的贬值预期，但于大势而言，仍显得有点螳臂当车。 再者，交付风险成为悬在购房者头上的达摩克利斯之剑。开发商债务危机频发，连昔日稳健的万科也面临考验。根据万科财报，截至2025年二季度末，万科流动负债有6411亿元，其中一年内到期的短期债务合计有1578.59亿元，但其账上货币资金有740亿元，规模持续下降，无法覆盖短债，公司存在一定短期偿债压力。当民营房企普遍陷入信用危机，“能否交房”远比“价格多优”更令人关切。
H | 在风险面前，低价已失去吸引力。 8月国务院会议重申要“采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势”，释放积极信号。京沪深三大一线城市也开始逐步松绑周边区域的限购，先是8月初北京大幅放宽五环外的限购措施，并在全市范围内优化公积金政策；下旬上海放宽外环外限购，房贷利率也不再区分首套和二套，在进一步利好需求的同时，风向标意义也被看重。
I | 9月深圳也跟进，成都、长沙等其他二、三线城市也都打出各种促销牌，促进各地项目加快销售和行情向好。 现实证明，在周期面前，我们能做的终究有限。
J | 回顾房地产下行的这三年，我们见证了政策的频繁调整、开发商的奋力自救，也目睹了中国人对“居者有其屋”的传统执着与投资狂热如何相互交织。当市场从非理性繁荣回归冷静，或许正是价值规律重新主导的时刻。
K | 《史记》有言：“察势者明，趋势者智。
L | ”当下的中国房地产，正从口号驱动的狂欢转向周期审视的理性。 人们开始学会像秋收后盘点仓廪的农人，懂得留种比挥霍更需要智慧与定力。市场的体温或许暂时偏低，但正如日本楼市在沉寂二十年后重现生机，欧美经历百年起伏仍保持活跃交易，中国房地产的调整并非终点，而是一场合乎时序的回归。 我们需要的是耐心，静候这个巨量市场在新的平衡点上重新找到它的节奏。 本文来自微信公众号：秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015），作者：梁云风。
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